Tell me how abounding of those greats angle 5-foot-9.
There is no analytic Betts’ accolade at this moment. The above MVP is one of the bristles best players in baseball, and back aggregate is clicking, he’s the alone animal animate who can claiming Mike Trout for five-tool dominance.
But anyone giving him 10 years and $300 million, like the Red Sox reportedly offered, or 12 years and $420 million, like Betts reportedly wants, charge actuate the likelihood that he’ll abide advantageous well into his 30s.
LIVE beck the Celtics all season and get the latest account and assay on all of your teams from NBC Sports Boston by downloading the My Teams App.
And if there’s one cardinal that should accord anybody pause, it’s the one he can’t do annihilation about — his height.
Undersized stars artlessly don’t last, no amount how abounding MVP awards they win in their 20s. We laid this out recently, but it’s account analytical in greater depth.
Since affiliation in 1947, alone seven players 5-9 or beneath accept aggregate 50 career WAR: Joe Morgan (100.6), Tim Raines (69.4), Pudge Rodriguez (68.7), Yogi Berra (59.3), Luis Aparicio (55.8), Dustin Pedroia (51.7), and Kirby Puckett (51.1). Betts (42.0) should accompany them ancient in aboriginal 2021.
By comparison, 125 players 5-10 or taller accept absurd the 50-WAR plateau in that time, from Barry Bonds (162.8) to Torii Hunter (50.1).
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Morgan, Raines, Rodriguez, and Pedroia anniversary delivered their aftermost standout abhorrent seasons at age 32, while Berra remained an All-Star into his backward 30s. Aparicio was a appreciably below-average abhorrent amateur alike in his prime — he accomplished the Hall of Fame with a lifetime OPS of .653 — and that leaves Puckett, who’s the adverse best-case scenario.
The Hall of Famer remained an abhorrent force through age 35 afore a aberration eye abrasion concluded his career. He fabricated his 10th beeline All-Star aggregation in his final division while batting .314 with 23 homers and 99 RBIs.
Had he active a 10-year accord at age 28, he would’ve been account it. The others on this list, not so much.
For proof, Red Sox admirers charge attending no added than Pedroia, a gritty, gutsy, MVP-caliber advocate whose anatomy artlessly couldn’t booty the pounding. The 5-foot-8 above All-Star active an eight-year, $110 actor addendum in 2013 that runs through 2021.
“If we’re activity to bet on addition at 37 or 38 years old, we’re not abiding there’s a bigger guy to bet on,” accepted administrator Ben Cherington said the day the addendum was announced, blind that Pedroia would comedy his aftermost able bold at 33. They’ll acceptable accept three hits in nine amateur to appearance for the final four years and $56 actor of their investment.
If there’s a extenuative adroitness from a roster-building standpoint, it’s that Pedroia alone banked a about bashful $14 actor a year. He continued ago becoming every penny of his $110 million. However, action on your guy to blade the trends back we’re talking about $400 actor is a actual altered gamble.
Only three players Betts’ admeasurement back 1980 accept delivered a .900 OPS in at atomic 100 amateur afterwards age 30 — Matt Stairs (twice), Lonnie Smith, and Puckett. Assuming Betts plays out this division and signs a abiding accord that starts in 2021 with his age-28 season, would you pay him $35 actor annually into the abutting decade for an OPS that doesn’t able .900 afterwards 2022?
Consider how Betts generates his power. He relies on lightning-quick wrists, because he’s never activity to beef his way out of the esplanade like Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera or Adam Dunn. Virtually all of his homers are to the cull side, because he lacks the aggregate to consistently barrage them out the added way.
What happens if he break a hamate, or tears a deride ligament, or sprains his wrist? Both Pedroia and Nomar Garciaparra looked like they were on their way to Cooperstown afore duke injuries beggared them of their reflexes at the plate. Neither one anytime sniffed $35 actor a year.
Betts has becoming the appropriate to seek that rate, and addition will about absolutely accord it to him. Just don’t be afraid back they end up with a case of buyer’s remorse, because players his admeasurement artlessly aren’t congenital to last.
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